Tata Motors Pullback Guard
v3 · TATAMOTORS · 4 tuned parameters · NSE illustrative history
LOOK-AHEAD PREVENTED
Every signal sees only prices and filings available before its decision timestamp. Zero future bars visible.
624 / 624 passed
17 future reads rejected
Downside Floor · P5 Envelope
CRITICAL FLOOR−14.2%
Worst displayed 5th percentile at 180-day horizon
Plausible Reordered Range
−14.2% to +28.5%
Illustrative range, never a probability of profit
Simulated Path Sequences
1,000 Iterations
Same trade outcomes, permuted chronologies
Model Assumption Limitation
Trades are mathematically assumed independent; real financial markets exhibit volatility clustering and regime autocorrelation. Percentile envelopes depict path reordering uncertainty, not predictive odds.
Sequence Uncertainty, Read From The Floor Upward
The red lower boundary is the fifth-percentile path. The shaded outer envelope spans P5 to P95 with P50 median.
Monte Carlo Percentile Envelopes by Evaluation Horizon
| Horizon | P5 Downside | P25 | P50 Median | P75 | P95 Ceiling | Plausible Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% to +0% |
| Day 30 | -4.2% | -1.4% | +1.2% | +3.9% | +6.8% | -4.2% to +6.8% |
| Day 60 | -7.8% | -2.2% | +2.7% | +7.1% | +11.5% | -7.8% to +11.5% |
| Day 90 | -10.6% | -2.9% | +4.1% | +9.8% | +16.2% | -10.6% to +16.2% |
| Day 120 | -12.8% | -3.1% | +5.8% | +12.6% | +20.8% | -12.8% to +20.8% |
| Day 150 | -13.7% | -2.6% | +7.6% | +15.3% | +24.9% | -13.7% to +24.9% |
| Day 180 | -14.2% | -1.8% | +9.4% | +18.1% | +28.5% | -14.2% to +28.5% |